Early Downs College › Week 7

Northwestern at Michigan State: Week 7 recap

• Northwestern beat Michigan State 24–21 in Week 7.
• Misleading final: Northwestern won by 3, but Michigan State outplayed them. Northwestern played like a team that loses by about 4 (28% postgame win expectancy).
• Postgame win expectancy for Northwestern: 28%, a win the per-play numbers didn't support.
• Northwestern offense (garbage time excluded): +0.23 EPA per play, 45% success rate.
• Michigan State offense (garbage time excluded): +0.02 EPA per play, 44% success rate.