Early Downs College › Week 6

South Alabama at Arkansas State: Week 6 recap

• South Alabama beat Arkansas State 56–49 in Week 6.
• Misleading final: South Alabama won by 7, but Arkansas State outplayed them. South Alabama played like a team that loses by about 6 (22% postgame win expectancy).
• Postgame win expectancy for South Alabama: 22%, a win the per-play numbers didn't support.
• South Alabama offense (garbage time excluded): +0.32 EPA per play, 46% success rate.
• Arkansas State offense (garbage time excluded): +0.28 EPA per play, 64% success rate.