Early Downs College › Week 6

Illinois at Michigan State: Week 6 recap

• Illinois beat Michigan State 38–37 in Week 6.
• Misleading final: Illinois won by 1, but Michigan State outplayed them. Illinois played like a team that loses by about 5 (25% postgame win expectancy).
• Postgame win expectancy for Illinois: 25%, a win the per-play numbers didn't support.
• Illinois offense (garbage time excluded): +0.20 EPA per play, 52% success rate.
• Michigan State offense (garbage time excluded): +0.46 EPA per play, 51% success rate.