Early Downs College › Week 13

Troy at Arkansas State: Week 13 preview

• Troy (4-4) visits Arkansas State (4-4) on Sat, Nov 28 · 3:00 PM ET.
• SP+ power ratings: Troy -9.9 (108th), Arkansas State -7.0 (97th). SP+ projects Arkansas State by 5.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
• The Troy offense ranks 116th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.00); the Arkansas State defense ranks 107th (+0.19 allowed). Biggest Troy edges: second-level yards per carry, stuff rate, line yards per carry. The Arkansas State defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, explosiveness.
• The Arkansas State offense ranks 50th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.15); the Troy defense ranks 46th (+0.06 allowed). Biggest Arkansas State edges: standard-downs success rate, passing success rate, success rate. The Troy defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, passing-downs success rate, explosiveness.
• Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Troy −6.0 (112th toughest), Arkansas State −4.9 (102nd toughest).