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New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee: Week 13 preview

• New Mexico State (3-5) visits Middle Tennessee (4-4) on Sat, Nov 28 · 2:00 PM ET.
• SP+ power ratings: New Mexico State -13.4 (119th), Middle Tennessee -15.2 (125th). SP+ projects Middle Tennessee by 0.7, including 2.5 points of home field.
• The New Mexico State offense ranks 131st in FBS in EPA per play (−0.07); the Middle Tennessee defense ranks 87th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest New Mexico State edges: stuff rate, line yards per carry, second-level yards per carry. The Middle Tennessee defense holds the edge in EPA per pass, EPA per play, passing success rate.
• The Middle Tennessee offense ranks 90th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.06); the New Mexico State defense ranks 54th (+0.08 allowed). Biggest Middle Tennessee edges: second-level yards per carry. The New Mexico State defense holds the edge in passing success rate, EPA per pass, standard-downs success rate.
• Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): New Mexico State −4.9 (103rd toughest), Middle Tennessee −6.7 (117th toughest).