Miami (OH) at Western Michigan: Week 13 preview

Miami (OH) (5-4) visits Western Michigan (6-3) on Tue, Nov 24 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Miami (OH) -4.2 (92nd), Western Michigan -2.7 (86th). SP+ projects Western Michigan by 4.0, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Miami (OH) offense ranks 71st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.11); the Western Michigan defense ranks 65th (+0.10 allowed). Biggest Miami (OH) edges: passing explosiveness, second-level yards per carry, line yards per carry. The Western Michigan defense holds the edge in sack rate, passing success rate, standard-downs success rate.
The Western Michigan offense ranks 85th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.07); the Miami (OH) defense ranks 77th (+0.13 allowed). Biggest Western Michigan edges: power success rate. The Miami (OH) defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry, line yards per carry, rushing success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Miami (OH) −8.5 (131st toughest), Western Michigan −7.2 (124th toughest).