Massachusetts at Bowling Green: Week 13 preview

Massachusetts (5-4) visits Bowling Green (2-7) on Sat, Nov 28 · 12:00 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: Massachusetts -11.1 (113th), Bowling Green -18.2 (130th). SP+ projects Massachusetts by 4.6, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Massachusetts offense ranks 67th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.11); the Bowling Green defense ranks 90th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Massachusetts edges: rushing success rate, second-level yards per carry, standard-downs success rate. The Bowling Green defense holds the edge in sack rate, passing explosiveness.
The Bowling Green offense ranks 112th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.01); the Massachusetts defense ranks 64th (+0.10 allowed). Biggest Bowling Green edges: power success rate. The Massachusetts defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, passing-downs success rate, sack rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Massachusetts −12.0 (136th toughest), Bowling Green −6.5 (116th toughest).