Louisville at No. 6 Kentucky: Week 13 preview

Louisville (5-3) visits No. 6 Kentucky (7-1) on Sat, Nov 28 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Louisville 12.2 (25th), Kentucky 10.6 (31st). SP+ projects Kentucky by 0.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Louisville offense ranks 9th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.30); the Kentucky defense ranks 39th (+0.05 allowed). Biggest Louisville edges: passing success rate, success rate, passing-downs success rate. The Kentucky defense holds the edge in stuff rate, line yards per carry, power success rate.
The Kentucky offense ranks 43rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.17); the Louisville defense ranks 57th (+0.09 allowed). Biggest Kentucky edges: stuff rate, rushing success rate, success rate. The Louisville defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, explosiveness.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Louisville +4.5 (46th toughest), Kentucky +9.2 (13th toughest).