Liberty at Missouri State: Week 13 preview

Liberty (7-1) visits Missouri State (3-5) on Sat, Nov 28 · 2:00 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: Liberty 7.5 (45th), Missouri State -16.9 (128th). SP+ projects Liberty by 21.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Liberty offense ranks 8th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.30); the Missouri State defense ranks 125th (+0.25 allowed). Biggest Liberty edges: success rate, standard-downs success rate, EPA per play. The Missouri State defense holds the edge in explosiveness, rushing explosiveness.
The Missouri State offense ranks 95th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.05); the Liberty defense ranks 9th (−0.06 allowed). Biggest Missouri State edges: passing explosiveness. The Liberty defense holds the edge in EPA per rush, passing success rate, EPA per play.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Liberty −10.1 (135th toughest), Missouri State −6.1 (113th toughest).