Illinois at Northwestern: Week 13 preview

Illinois (5-3) visits Northwestern (6-2) on Sat, Nov 28 · TBD. The line is Illinois −3.5 with a total of 52.5.
SP+ power ratings: Illinois 6.8 (47th), Northwestern 13.7 (20th). SP+ projects Northwestern by 9.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Illinois offense ranks 31st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.19); the Northwestern defense ranks 43rd (+0.06 allowed). Biggest Illinois edges: sack rate, rushing explosiveness, explosiveness.
The Northwestern offense ranks 4th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.32); the Illinois defense ranks 131st (+0.29 allowed). Biggest Northwestern edges: EPA per play, passing-downs success rate, passing success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Illinois +5.3 (39th toughest), Northwestern +2.6 (58th toughest).