Arizona State at No. 22 Arizona: Week 13 preview

Arizona State (4-4) visits No. 22 Arizona (6-2) on Sat, Nov 28 · TBD. The line is Arizona −4.5 with a total of 52.5.
SP+ power ratings: Arizona State 2.3 (62nd), Arizona 16.0 (14th). SP+ projects Arizona by 16.2, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Arizona State offense ranks 127th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.03); the Arizona defense ranks 25th (+0.01 allowed). Biggest Arizona State edges: second-level yards per carry, rushing explosiveness. The Arizona defense holds the edge in EPA per pass, EPA per play, standard-downs success rate.
The Arizona offense ranks 14th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.26); the Arizona State defense ranks 50th (+0.07 allowed). Biggest Arizona edges: explosiveness, EPA per pass, power success rate. The Arizona State defense holds the edge in line yards per carry, stuff rate, rushing success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Arizona State +7.9 (22nd toughest), Arizona +0.2 (70th toughest).