Air Force at New Mexico: Week 13 preview

Air Force (6-2) visits New Mexico (7-1) on Sat, Nov 28 · 4:30 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: Air Force -0.8 (73rd), New Mexico 9.3 (36th). SP+ projects New Mexico by 12.6, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Air Force offense ranks 35th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.19); the New Mexico defense ranks 2nd (−0.16 allowed). Biggest Air Force edges: passing explosiveness, rushing explosiveness. The New Mexico defense holds the edge in EPA per pass, passing success rate, passing-downs success rate.
The New Mexico offense ranks 80th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.09); the Air Force defense ranks 83rd (+0.14 allowed). Biggest New Mexico edges: power success rate, stuff rate, second-level yards per carry. The Air Force defense holds the edge in sack rate, passing-downs success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Air Force −4.3 (98th toughest), New Mexico −8.1 (128th toughest).