UTEP at Air Force: Week 12 preview

UTEP (1-7) visits Air Force (6-2) on Fri, Nov 20 · 8:00 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: UTEP -24.5 (134th), Air Force -0.8 (73rd). SP+ projects Air Force by 26.2, including 2.5 points of home field.
The UTEP offense ranks 137th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.14); the Air Force defense ranks 83rd (+0.14 allowed). Biggest UTEP edges: second-level yards per carry, explosiveness, passing explosiveness. The Air Force defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, passing success rate, success rate.
The Air Force offense ranks 35th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.19); the UTEP defense ranks 132nd (+0.29 allowed). Biggest Air Force edges: standard-downs success rate, success rate, rushing success rate. The UTEP defense holds the edge in explosiveness.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): UTEP +4.6 (44th toughest), Air Force −4.3 (98th toughest).