Early Downs College › Week 12

North Carolina at Virginia: Week 12 preview

• North Carolina (4-4) visits Virginia (4-5) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
• SP+ power ratings: North Carolina 3.7 (58th), Virginia 5.8 (53rd). SP+ projects Virginia by 4.6, including 2.5 points of home field.
• The North Carolina offense ranks 76th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.10); the Virginia defense ranks 95th (+0.16 allowed). Biggest North Carolina edges: standard-downs success rate, stuff rate, EPA per pass. The Virginia defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, power success rate, explosiveness.
• The Virginia offense ranks 63rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.12); the North Carolina defense ranks 66th (+0.11 allowed). Biggest Virginia edges: power success rate, stuff rate, standard-downs success rate. The North Carolina defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, passing explosiveness, explosiveness.
• Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): North Carolina +10.7 (8th toughest), Virginia +2.9 (56th toughest).