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Pittsburgh at Louisville: Week 12 preview

• Pittsburgh (6-3) visits Louisville (5-3) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
• SP+ power ratings: Pittsburgh 7.9 (44th), Louisville 12.2 (25th). SP+ projects Louisville by 6.8, including 2.5 points of home field.
• The Pittsburgh offense ranks 77th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.10); the Louisville defense ranks 57th (+0.09 allowed). Biggest Pittsburgh edges: stuff rate, passing explosiveness, power success rate. The Louisville defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, passing success rate.
• The Louisville offense ranks 9th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.30); the Pittsburgh defense ranks 31st (+0.03 allowed). Biggest Louisville edges: explosiveness, rushing explosiveness, passing explosiveness. The Pittsburgh defense holds the edge in stuff rate, line yards per carry, sack rate.
• Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Pittsburgh +4.0 (49th toughest), Louisville +4.5 (46th toughest).