Northern Illinois at North Dakota State: Week 12 preview

Northern Illinois (0-8) visits North Dakota State (7-2) on Sat, Nov 21 · 4:00 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: Northern Illinois -25.4 (136th), North Dakota State 8.6 (41st). SP+ projects North Dakota State by 36.5, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Northern Illinois offense ranks 113th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.01); the North Dakota State defense ranks 3rd (−0.10 allowed). Biggest Northern Illinois edges: second-level yards per carry, rushing explosiveness, line yards per carry. The North Dakota State defense holds the edge in passing success rate, EPA per pass, EPA per play.
The North Dakota State offense ranks 81st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.09); the Northern Illinois defense ranks 137th (+0.39 allowed). Biggest North Dakota State edges: sack rate, second-level yards per carry, line yards per carry.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Northern Illinois −0.1 (74th toughest), North Dakota State −7.5 (126th toughest).