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Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston: Week 12 preview

• Middle Tennessee (4-4) visits Sam Houston (1-7) on Sat, Nov 21 · 2:00 PM ET.
• SP+ power ratings: Middle Tennessee -15.2 (125th), Sam Houston -18.0 (129th). SP+ projects Middle Tennessee by 0.3, including 2.5 points of home field.
• The Middle Tennessee offense ranks 90th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.06); the Sam Houston defense ranks 74th (+0.12 allowed). Biggest Middle Tennessee edges: second-level yards per carry, rushing explosiveness, EPA per rush. The Sam Houston defense holds the edge in passing success rate, EPA per pass, standard-downs success rate.
• The Sam Houston offense ranks 134th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.10); the Middle Tennessee defense ranks 87th (+0.15 allowed). The Middle Tennessee defense holds the edge in power success rate, EPA per pass, passing-downs success rate.
• Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Middle Tennessee −6.7 (117th toughest), Sam Houston −4.0 (96th toughest).