Missouri State at Jacksonville State: Week 12 preview

Missouri State (3-5) visits Jacksonville State (6-2) on Sat, Nov 21 · 2:00 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: Missouri State -16.9 (128th), Jacksonville State -2.6 (84th). SP+ projects Jacksonville State by 16.8, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Missouri State offense ranks 95th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.05); the Jacksonville State defense ranks 69th (+0.11 allowed). Biggest Missouri State edges: rushing success rate, stuff rate. The Jacksonville State defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, explosiveness, passing success rate.
The Jacksonville State offense ranks 56th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.14); the Missouri State defense ranks 125th (+0.25 allowed). Biggest Jacksonville State edges: passing success rate, success rate, standard-downs success rate. The Missouri State defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness, explosiveness.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Missouri State −6.1 (113th toughest), Jacksonville State −6.9 (120th toughest).