Iowa State at UCF: Week 12 preview

Iowa State (4-4) visits UCF (4-4) on Fri, Nov 20 · 6:00 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: Iowa State -1.2 (76th), UCF 4.5 (56th). SP+ projects UCF by 8.2, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Iowa State offense ranks 64th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.12); the UCF defense ranks 59th (+0.09 allowed). The UCF defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, power success rate, passing-downs success rate.
The UCF offense ranks 99th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.05); the Iowa State defense ranks 121st (+0.22 allowed). Biggest UCF edges: rushing success rate, sack rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Iowa State +8.2 (20th toughest), UCF +8.3 (18th toughest).