No. 19 Iowa at Illinois: Week 12 preview

No. 19 Iowa (6-2) visits Illinois (5-3) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Iowa 12.4 (23rd), Illinois 6.8 (47th). SP+ projects Iowa by 3.1, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Iowa offense ranks 86th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.07); the Illinois defense ranks 131st (+0.29 allowed). Biggest Iowa edges: sack rate, passing success rate, EPA per pass. The Illinois defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness, power success rate.
The Illinois offense ranks 31st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.19); the Iowa defense ranks 34th (+0.04 allowed). Biggest Illinois edges: EPA per pass, passing success rate. The Iowa defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, second-level yards per carry, power success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Iowa +5.1 (40th toughest), Illinois +5.3 (39th toughest).