Central Michigan at Buffalo: Week 12 preview

Central Michigan (4-5) visits Buffalo (6-3) on Wed, Nov 18 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Central Michigan -16.7 (127th), Buffalo -12.0 (118th). SP+ projects Buffalo by 7.2, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Central Michigan offense ranks 66th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.11); the Buffalo defense ranks 81st (+0.14 allowed). Biggest Central Michigan edges: stuff rate, line yards per carry, power success rate. The Buffalo defense holds the edge in explosiveness, passing-downs success rate, sack rate.
The Buffalo offense ranks 101st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.04); the Central Michigan defense ranks 115th (+0.21 allowed). Biggest Buffalo edges: stuff rate, EPA per rush. The Central Michigan defense holds the edge in EPA per pass, passing success rate, passing explosiveness.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Central Michigan −2.7 (89th toughest), Buffalo −4.7 (100th toughest).