San José State at Air Force: Week 11 preview

San José State (4-5) visits Air Force (6-2) on Sat, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: San José State -11.3 (114th), Air Force -0.8 (73rd). SP+ projects Air Force by 13.0, including 2.5 points of home field.
The San José State offense ranks 104th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.04); the Air Force defense ranks 83rd (+0.14 allowed). The Air Force defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, success rate, EPA per rush.
The Air Force offense ranks 35th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.19); the San José State defense ranks 38th (+0.04 allowed). Biggest Air Force edges: rushing success rate, standard-downs success rate, stuff rate. The San José State defense holds the edge in explosiveness, sack rate, EPA per pass.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): San José State −4.1 (97th toughest), Air Force −4.3 (98th toughest).
Weather: Clear, 42°F at kickoff (feels like 36°), 5% chance of rain, wind SE 6 mph gusting to 13.