Sacramento State at Central Michigan: Week 11 preview

Sacramento State (2-8) visits Central Michigan (4-5) on Wed, Nov 11 · 7:30 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: Sacramento State -29.1 (138th), Central Michigan -16.7 (127th). SP+ projects Central Michigan by 14.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Sacramento State offense ranks 136th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.14); the Central Michigan defense ranks 115th (+0.21 allowed). The Central Michigan defense holds the edge in explosiveness, passing explosiveness, EPA per pass.
The Central Michigan offense ranks 66th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.11); the Sacramento State defense ranks 53rd (+0.08 allowed). Biggest Central Michigan edges: line yards per carry, stuff rate, rushing explosiveness. The Sacramento State defense holds the edge in passing success rate, passing-downs success rate, success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Sacramento State −8.2 (130th toughest), Central Michigan −2.7 (89th toughest).
Weather: Cloudy, 40°F at kickoff (feels like 30°), 4% chance of rain, wind N 12 mph gusting to 17.