Northwestern at No. 12 Ohio State: Week 11 preview

Northwestern (6-2) visits No. 12 Ohio State (6-2) on Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET. The line is Ohio State −9.5 with a total of 48.5.
SP+ power ratings: Northwestern 13.7 (20th), Ohio State 28.6 (1st). SP+ projects Ohio State by 17.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Northwestern offense ranks 4th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.32); the Ohio State defense ranks 15th (−0.03 allowed). Biggest Northwestern edges: explosiveness, passing explosiveness, rushing explosiveness. The Ohio State defense holds the edge in stuff rate.
The Ohio State offense ranks 16th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.25); the Northwestern defense ranks 43rd (+0.06 allowed). Biggest Ohio State edges: standard-downs success rate, success rate, rushing success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Northwestern +2.6 (58th toughest), Ohio State +4.3 (47th toughest).
Weather: Partly cloudy, 43°F at kickoff (feels like 35°), 6% chance of rain, wind W 8 mph gusting to 10.