New Mexico State at Missouri State: Week 11 preview

New Mexico State (3-5) visits Missouri State (3-5) on Sat, Nov 14 · 3:00 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: New Mexico State -13.4 (119th), Missouri State -16.9 (128th). SP+ projects New Mexico State by 1.0, including 2.5 points of home field.
The New Mexico State offense ranks 131st in FBS in EPA per play (−0.07); the Missouri State defense ranks 125th (+0.25 allowed). Biggest New Mexico State edges: power success rate, stuff rate, sack rate.
The Missouri State offense ranks 95th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.05); the New Mexico State defense ranks 54th (+0.08 allowed). The New Mexico State defense holds the edge in stuff rate, line yards per carry, passing success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): New Mexico State −4.9 (103rd toughest), Missouri State −6.1 (113th toughest).
Weather: Clear, 52°F at kickoff (feels like 45°), 3% chance of rain, wind NW 2 mph gusting to 2.