Early Downs College › Week 11

Nevada at Northern Illinois: Week 11 preview

• Nevada (3-5) visits Northern Illinois (0-8) on Sat, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET.
• SP+ power ratings: Nevada -3.1 (89th), Northern Illinois -25.4 (136th). SP+ projects Nevada by 19.8, including 2.5 points of home field.
• The Nevada offense ranks 97th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.05); the Northern Illinois defense ranks 137th (+0.39 allowed). Biggest Nevada edges: second-level yards per carry, rushing success rate, rushing explosiveness.
• The Northern Illinois offense ranks 113th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.01); the Nevada defense ranks 58th (+0.09 allowed). Biggest Northern Illinois edges: line yards per carry, second-level yards per carry, passing explosiveness. The Nevada defense holds the edge in passing success rate, success rate, standard-downs success rate.
• Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Nevada −5.8 (109th toughest), Northern Illinois −0.1 (74th toughest).
• Weather: Clear, 47°F at kickoff (feels like 38°), 6% chance of rain, wind W 11 mph gusting to 11.