Middle Tennessee at Liberty: Week 11 preview

Middle Tennessee (4-4) visits Liberty (7-1) on Sat, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: Middle Tennessee -15.2 (125th), Liberty 7.5 (45th). SP+ projects Liberty by 25.2, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Middle Tennessee offense ranks 90th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.06); the Liberty defense ranks 9th (−0.06 allowed). The Liberty defense holds the edge in passing success rate, standard-downs success rate, success rate.
The Liberty offense ranks 8th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.30); the Middle Tennessee defense ranks 87th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Liberty edges: rushing success rate, second-level yards per carry, line yards per carry. The Middle Tennessee defense holds the edge in explosiveness.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Middle Tennessee −6.7 (117th toughest), Liberty −10.1 (135th toughest).
Weather: Clear, 51°F at kickoff (feels like 43°), 4% chance of rain, wind W 8 mph gusting to 18.