Michigan at No. 23 Oregon: Week 11 preview

Michigan (5-3) visits No. 23 Oregon (5-3) on Sat, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET. The line is Oregon −5.5 with a total of 44.5.
SP+ power ratings: Michigan 11.5 (27th), Oregon 17.0 (12th). SP+ projects Oregon by 8.0, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Michigan offense ranks 83rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.08); the Oregon defense ranks 42nd (+0.05 allowed). Biggest Michigan edges: stuff rate. The Oregon defense holds the edge in standard-downs success rate, second-level yards per carry, rushing success rate.
The Oregon offense ranks 96th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.05); the Michigan defense ranks 4th (−0.08 allowed). Biggest Oregon edges: passing explosiveness. The Michigan defense holds the edge in EPA per rush, line yards per carry, second-level yards per carry.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Michigan +3.5 (53rd toughest), Oregon +12.5 (2nd toughest).
Weather watch: Cloudy, 58°F at kickoff (feels like 56°), 53% chance of rain, wind SW 3 mph gusting to 10.