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Memphis at South Florida: Week 11 preview

• Memphis (7-2) visits South Florida (6-2) on Thu, Nov 12 · 8:00 PM ET.
• SP+ power ratings: Memphis 7.0 (46th), South Florida 2.2 (63rd). SP+ projects Memphis by 2.3, including 2.5 points of home field.
• The Memphis offense ranks 24th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.21); the South Florida defense ranks 16th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Memphis edges: rushing success rate, passing-downs success rate, line yards per carry. The South Florida defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, explosiveness, sack rate.
• The South Florida offense ranks 103rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.04); the Memphis defense ranks 60th (+0.10 allowed). Biggest South Florida edges: power success rate, EPA per rush. The Memphis defense holds the edge in sack rate, passing-downs success rate, EPA per pass.
• Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Memphis −5.7 (108th toughest), South Florida −8.7 (132nd toughest).
• Weather: Cloudy, 69°F at kickoff (feels like 67°), 13% chance of rain, wind NW 6 mph gusting to 21.