Massachusetts at Toledo: Week 11 preview

Massachusetts (5-4) visits Toledo (7-2) on Wed, Nov 11 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Massachusetts -11.1 (113th), Toledo 2.0 (64th). SP+ projects Toledo by 15.6, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Massachusetts offense ranks 67th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.11); the Toledo defense ranks 19th (−0.01 allowed). Biggest Massachusetts edges: explosiveness. The Toledo defense holds the edge in stuff rate, EPA per rush, success rate.
The Toledo offense ranks 37th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.18); the Massachusetts defense ranks 64th (+0.10 allowed). Biggest Toledo edges: line yards per carry, stuff rate, second-level yards per carry. The Massachusetts defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Massachusetts −12.0 (136th toughest), Toledo −12.2 (137th toughest).
Weather: Cloudy, 53°F at kickoff (feels like 46°), 0% chance of rain, wind N 11 mph gusting to 17.