Louisville at North Carolina: Week 11 preview

Louisville (5-3) visits North Carolina (4-4) on Sat, Nov 14 · TBD. The line is Louisville −2.5 with a total of 59.5.
SP+ power ratings: Louisville 12.2 (25th), North Carolina 3.7 (58th). SP+ projects Louisville by 6.0, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Louisville offense ranks 9th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.30); the North Carolina defense ranks 66th (+0.11 allowed). Biggest Louisville edges: standard-downs success rate, rushing success rate, success rate. The North Carolina defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate.
The North Carolina offense ranks 76th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.10); the Louisville defense ranks 57th (+0.09 allowed). Biggest North Carolina edges: stuff rate, EPA per pass, passing success rate. The Louisville defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, EPA per rush, second-level yards per carry.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Louisville +4.5 (46th toughest), North Carolina +10.7 (8th toughest).
Weather: Clear, 54°F at kickoff (feels like 47°), 5% chance of rain, wind NW 6 mph gusting to 10.