Illinois at No. 8 UCLA: Week 11 preview

Illinois (5-3) visits No. 8 UCLA (8-0) on Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET. The line is UCLA −12.5 with a total of 47.5.
SP+ power ratings: Illinois 6.8 (47th), UCLA 14.4 (17th). SP+ projects UCLA by 10.1, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Illinois offense ranks 31st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.19); the UCLA defense ranks 1st (−0.21 allowed). Biggest Illinois edges: passing explosiveness, power success rate. The UCLA defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, EPA per rush, EPA per pass.
The UCLA offense ranks 44th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.16); the Illinois defense ranks 131st (+0.29 allowed). Biggest UCLA edges: EPA per rush, success rate, sack rate. The Illinois defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness, explosiveness.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Illinois +5.3 (39th toughest), UCLA +0.1 (72nd toughest).
Weather: Cloudy, 63°F at kickoff (feels like 60°), 16% chance of rain, wind SW 6 mph gusting to 14.