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Fresno State at Texas State: Week 11 preview

• Fresno State (5-3) visits Texas State (4-4) on Sat, Nov 14 · 4:00 PM ET.
• SP+ power ratings: Fresno State 2.6 (61st), Texas State 1.5 (65th). SP+ projects Texas State by 1.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
• The Fresno State offense ranks 68th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.11); the Texas State defense ranks 111th (+0.20 allowed). Biggest Fresno State edges: EPA per pass, passing success rate, passing-downs success rate. The Texas State defense holds the edge in stuff rate, line yards per carry, power success rate.
• The Texas State offense ranks 23rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.22); the Fresno State defense ranks 33rd (+0.04 allowed). Biggest Texas State edges: rushing success rate, passing-downs success rate, success rate. The Fresno State defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness.
• Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Fresno State −5.7 (107th toughest), Texas State +1.1 (63rd toughest).
• Weather: Light rain, 42°F at kickoff (feels like 33°), 21% chance of rain, wind NE 14 mph gusting to 21.