No. 24 Florida at No. 6 Kentucky: Week 11 preview

No. 24 Florida (5-3) visits No. 6 Kentucky (7-1) on Sat, Nov 14 · TBD. The line is Kentucky −1.5 with a total of 55.5.
SP+ power ratings: Florida 10.6 (31st), Kentucky 10.6 (31st). SP+ projects Kentucky by 2.5, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Florida offense ranks 34th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.19); the Kentucky defense ranks 39th (+0.05 allowed). Biggest Florida edges: passing-downs success rate, passing success rate, success rate. The Kentucky defense holds the edge in stuff rate, line yards per carry, second-level yards per carry.
The Kentucky offense ranks 43rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.17); the Florida defense ranks 82nd (+0.14 allowed). Biggest Kentucky edges: rushing success rate, success rate, standard-downs success rate. The Florida defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness, explosiveness, sack rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Florida +12.9 (1st toughest), Kentucky +9.2 (13th toughest).
Weather: Partly cloudy, 46°F at kickoff (feels like 36°), 7% chance of rain, wind W 9 mph gusting to 9.