Duke at No. 1 Miami: Week 11 preview

Duke (6-2) visits No. 1 Miami (8-0) on Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET. The line is Miami −21 with a total of 55.5.
SP+ power ratings: Duke 6.8 (47th), Miami 24.7 (5th). SP+ projects Miami by 20.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Duke offense ranks 26th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.21); the Miami defense ranks 75th (+0.12 allowed). Biggest Duke edges: passing-downs success rate, explosiveness, EPA per pass. The Miami defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, line yards per carry, standard-downs success rate.
The Miami offense ranks 1st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.40); the Duke defense ranks 27th (+0.01 allowed). Biggest Miami edges: standard-downs success rate, passing success rate, power success rate. The Duke defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, second-level yards per carry, passing explosiveness.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Duke −0.8 (78th toughest), Miami +1.0 (66th toughest).
Weather: Drizzle, 68°F at kickoff (feels like 67°), 17% chance of rain, wind NE 6 mph gusting to 8.