Cincinnati at Iowa State: Week 11 preview

Cincinnati (5-3) visits Iowa State (4-4) on Sat, Nov 14 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Cincinnati 6.7 (49th), Iowa State -1.2 (76th). SP+ projects Cincinnati by 5.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Cincinnati offense ranks 22nd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.22); the Iowa State defense ranks 121st (+0.22 allowed). Biggest Cincinnati edges: EPA per play, rushing explosiveness, second-level yards per carry.
The Iowa State offense ranks 64th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.12); the Cincinnati defense ranks 112th (+0.20 allowed). Biggest Iowa State edges: second-level yards per carry, rushing explosiveness, line yards per carry. The Cincinnati defense holds the edge in power success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Cincinnati +7.9 (23rd toughest), Iowa State +8.2 (20th toughest).
Weather: Clear, 51°F at kickoff (feels like 43°), 5% chance of rain, wind SW 8 mph gusting to 8.