California at Virginia: Week 11 preview

California (3-6) visits Virginia (4-5) on Sat, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: California -8.2 (101st), Virginia 5.8 (53rd). SP+ projects Virginia by 16.5, including 2.5 points of home field.
The California offense ranks 132nd in FBS in EPA per play (−0.09); the Virginia defense ranks 95th (+0.16 allowed). The Virginia defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, power success rate, passing success rate.
The Virginia offense ranks 63rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.12); the California defense ranks 109th (+0.19 allowed). Biggest Virginia edges: power success rate, EPA per rush, line yards per carry. The California defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, passing success rate, sack rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): California +6.0 (35th toughest), Virginia +2.9 (56th toughest).
Weather: Clear, 52°F at kickoff (feels like 44°), 4% chance of rain, wind NW 10 mph gusting to 21.