Buffalo at Ball State: Week 11 preview

Buffalo (6-3) visits Ball State (3-6) on Wed, Nov 11 · 7:30 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: Buffalo -12.0 (118th), Ball State -20.1 (131st). SP+ projects Buffalo by 5.6, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Buffalo offense ranks 101st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.04); the Ball State defense ranks 129th (+0.28 allowed). Biggest Buffalo edges: rushing explosiveness, explosiveness, passing explosiveness. The Ball State defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, second-level yards per carry, power success rate.
The Ball State offense ranks 78th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.09); the Buffalo defense ranks 81st (+0.14 allowed). Biggest Ball State edges: line yards per carry, stuff rate, power success rate. The Buffalo defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, rushing explosiveness, EPA per rush.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Buffalo −4.7 (100th toughest), Ball State −3.5 (94th toughest).
Weather: Mostly clear, 44°F at kickoff (feels like 36°), 3% chance of rain, wind NW 13 mph gusting to 23.