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Auburn at Mississippi State: Week 11 preview

• Auburn (4-4) visits Mississippi State (4-4) on Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET.
• SP+ power ratings: Auburn 6.5 (51st), Mississippi State 6.0 (52nd). SP+ projects Mississippi State by 2.0, including 2.5 points of home field.
• The Auburn offense ranks 72nd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.11); the Mississippi State defense ranks 84th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Auburn edges: stuff rate, line yards per carry, power success rate. The Mississippi State defense holds the edge in sack rate.
• The Mississippi State offense ranks 75th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.10); the Auburn defense ranks 72nd (+0.11 allowed). Biggest Mississippi State edges: passing success rate, passing-downs success rate, success rate. The Auburn defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness, sack rate.
• Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Auburn +10.8 (7th toughest), Mississippi State +10.2 (10th toughest).
• Weather: Clear, 52°F at kickoff (feels like 44°), 5% chance of rain, wind NE 9 mph gusting to 11.