Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee: Week 10 preview

Western Kentucky (3-5) visits Middle Tennessee (4-4) on Sat, Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET. The line is Western Kentucky −1.5 with a total of 53.5.
SP+ power ratings: Western Kentucky -11.5 (115th), Middle Tennessee -15.2 (125th). SP+ projects Western Kentucky by 1.2, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Western Kentucky offense ranks 125th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.03); the Middle Tennessee defense ranks 87th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Western Kentucky edges: rushing success rate, second-level yards per carry. The Middle Tennessee defense holds the edge in power success rate, EPA per pass, passing-downs success rate.
The Middle Tennessee offense ranks 90th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.06); the Western Kentucky defense ranks 106th (+0.19 allowed). Biggest Middle Tennessee edges: second-level yards per carry, sack rate, passing-downs success rate. The Western Kentucky defense holds the edge in standard-downs success rate, passing success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Western Kentucky −1.7 (82nd toughest), Middle Tennessee −6.7 (117th toughest).
Weather: Cloudy, 56°F at kickoff (feels like 48°), 0% chance of rain, wind N 10 mph gusting to 16.