Virginia Tech at SMU: Week 10 preview

Virginia Tech (6-2) visits SMU (6-2) on Fri, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM ET. The line is SMU −6.5 with a total of 56.5.
SP+ power ratings: Virginia Tech 9.0 (38th), SMU 13.4 (21st). SP+ projects SMU by 6.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Virginia Tech offense ranks 45th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.16); the SMU defense ranks 79th (+0.13 allowed). Biggest Virginia Tech edges: passing explosiveness, EPA per pass, explosiveness. The SMU defense holds the edge in sack rate, line yards per carry, stuff rate.
The SMU offense ranks 28th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.20); the Virginia Tech defense ranks 73rd (+0.12 allowed). Biggest SMU edges: EPA per pass, standard-downs success rate, EPA per play. The Virginia Tech defense holds the edge in stuff rate, line yards per carry.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Virginia Tech −2.1 (87th toughest), SMU −0.8 (79th toughest).
Weather: Cloudy, 60°F at kickoff (feels like 54°), 0% chance of rain, wind N 11 mph gusting to 21.