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Vanderbilt at Mississippi State: Week 10 preview

• Vanderbilt (3-5) visits Mississippi State (4-4) on Sat, Nov 7 · 4:15 PM ET. The line is Mississippi State −3 with a total of 48.5.
• SP+ power ratings: Vanderbilt -1.4 (77th), Mississippi State 6.0 (52nd). SP+ projects Mississippi State by 9.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
• The Vanderbilt offense ranks 98th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.05); the Mississippi State defense ranks 84th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Vanderbilt edges: passing success rate, EPA per pass, passing explosiveness. The Mississippi State defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry, rushing success rate, EPA per rush.
• The Mississippi State offense ranks 75th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.10); the Vanderbilt defense ranks 105th (+0.18 allowed). Biggest Mississippi State edges: passing success rate, standard-downs success rate, success rate. The Vanderbilt defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, explosiveness.
• Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Vanderbilt +6.6 (32nd toughest), Mississippi State +10.2 (10th toughest).
• Weather: Cloudy, 61°F at kickoff (feels like 52°), 0% chance of rain, wind N 12 mph gusting to 23.