New Mexico at Nevada: Week 10 preview

New Mexico (7-1) visits Nevada (3-5) on Fri, Nov 6 · 9:00 PM ET. The line is New Mexico −10 with a total of 36.5.
SP+ power ratings: New Mexico 9.3 (36th), Nevada -3.1 (89th). SP+ projects New Mexico by 9.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
The New Mexico offense ranks 80th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.09); the Nevada defense ranks 58th (+0.09 allowed). Biggest New Mexico edges: stuff rate, EPA per rush, rushing explosiveness. The Nevada defense holds the edge in sack rate, EPA per pass, passing-downs success rate.
The Nevada offense ranks 97th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.05); the New Mexico defense ranks 2nd (−0.16 allowed). Biggest Nevada edges: explosiveness, rushing explosiveness, passing explosiveness. The New Mexico defense holds the edge in stuff rate, passing success rate, line yards per carry.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): New Mexico −8.1 (128th toughest), Nevada −5.8 (109th toughest).
Weather: Clear, 52°F at kickoff (feels like 44°), 0% chance of rain, wind N 6 mph gusting to 8.