North Carolina at UConn: Week 10 preview

North Carolina (4-4) visits UConn (4-4) on Sat, Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET. The line is North Carolina −7 with a total of 54.5.
SP+ power ratings: North Carolina 3.7 (58th), UConn 0.7 (67th). SP+ projects North Carolina by 0.5, including 2.5 points of home field.
The North Carolina offense ranks 76th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.10); the UConn defense ranks 70th (+0.11 allowed). Biggest North Carolina edges: standard-downs success rate, passing success rate, stuff rate. The UConn defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, explosiveness, second-level yards per carry.
The UConn offense ranks 27th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.20); the North Carolina defense ranks 66th (+0.11 allowed). Biggest UConn edges: power success rate, standard-downs success rate, rushing success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): North Carolina +10.7 (8th toughest), UConn −6.4 (115th toughest).
Weather watch: Drizzle, 56°F at kickoff (feels like 54°), 50% chance of rain, wind NE 8 mph gusting to 20.