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UL Monroe at Arkansas State: Week 10 preview

• UL Monroe (1-7) visits Arkansas State (4-4) on Sat, Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET. The line is Arkansas State −14.5 with a total of 53.5.
• SP+ power ratings: UL Monroe -24.2 (133rd), Arkansas State -7.0 (97th). SP+ projects Arkansas State by 19.7, including 2.5 points of home field.
• The UL Monroe offense ranks 129th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.05); the Arkansas State defense ranks 107th (+0.19 allowed). Biggest UL Monroe edges: stuff rate, sack rate, line yards per carry. The Arkansas State defense holds the edge in explosiveness, passing-downs success rate, rushing explosiveness.
• The Arkansas State offense ranks 50th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.15); the UL Monroe defense ranks 118th (+0.22 allowed). Biggest Arkansas State edges: success rate, standard-downs success rate, EPA per play. The UL Monroe defense holds the edge in explosiveness.
• Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): UL Monroe −6.8 (118th toughest), Arkansas State −4.9 (102nd toughest).
• Weather: Cloudy, 56°F at kickoff (feels like 48°), 0% chance of rain, wind N 8 mph gusting to 10.