No. 8 UCLA at Minnesota: Week 10 preview

No. 8 UCLA (8-0) visits Minnesota (5-3) on Sat, Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET. The line is UCLA −5.5 with a total of 39.5.
SP+ power ratings: UCLA 14.4 (17th), Minnesota 3.9 (57th). SP+ projects UCLA by 8.0, including 2.5 points of home field.
The UCLA offense ranks 44th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.16); the Minnesota defense ranks 37th (+0.04 allowed). Biggest UCLA edges: rushing success rate, line yards per carry, second-level yards per carry. The Minnesota defense holds the edge in explosiveness, passing success rate, EPA per pass.
The Minnesota offense ranks 130th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.05); the UCLA defense ranks 1st (−0.21 allowed). Biggest Minnesota edges: passing explosiveness. The UCLA defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, EPA per rush, success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): UCLA +0.1 (72nd toughest), Minnesota +5.5 (36th toughest).
Weather: Clear, 49°F at kickoff (feels like 42°), 0% chance of rain, wind S 7 mph gusting to 11.