UCF at Kansas: Week 10 preview

UCF (4-4) visits Kansas (3-5) on Sat, Nov 7 · 3:45 PM ET. The line is Kansas −2.5 with a total of 47.5.
SP+ power ratings: UCF 4.5 (56th), Kansas 2.8 (60th). SP+ projects Kansas by 0.8, including 2.5 points of home field.
The UCF offense ranks 99th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.05); the Kansas defense ranks 51st (+0.07 allowed). The Kansas defense holds the edge in stuff rate, line yards per carry, standard-downs success rate.
The Kansas offense ranks 100th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.04); the UCF defense ranks 59th (+0.09 allowed). Biggest Kansas edges: passing explosiveness, stuff rate, sack rate. The UCF defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, rushing success rate, second-level yards per carry.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): UCF +8.3 (18th toughest), Kansas +6.5 (33rd toughest).
Weather: Cloudy, 56°F at kickoff (feels like 52°), 0% chance of rain, wind SW 5 mph gusting to 8.