Northern Illinois at San José State: Week 10 preview

Northern Illinois (0-8) visits San José State (4-5) on Sat, Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ET. The line is San José State −10 with a total of 51.5.
SP+ power ratings: Northern Illinois -25.4 (136th), San José State -11.3 (114th). SP+ projects San José State by 16.6, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Northern Illinois offense ranks 113th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.01); the San José State defense ranks 38th (+0.04 allowed). Biggest Northern Illinois edges: second-level yards per carry, rushing success rate. The San José State defense holds the edge in sack rate, EPA per pass, passing success rate.
The San José State offense ranks 104th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.04); the Northern Illinois defense ranks 137th (+0.39 allowed). Biggest San José State edges: EPA per pass, passing success rate. The Northern Illinois defense holds the edge in power success rate.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Northern Illinois −0.1 (74th toughest), San José State −4.1 (97th toughest).
Weather: Clear, 76°F at kickoff (feels like 70°), 0% chance of rain, wind NW 7 mph gusting to 8.