Nebraska at Illinois: Week 10 preview

Nebraska (5-3) visits Illinois (5-3) on Fri, Nov 6 · 8:00 PM ET. The line is Nebraska −4.5 with a total of 49.5.
SP+ power ratings: Nebraska 15.4 (15th), Illinois 6.8 (47th). SP+ projects Nebraska by 6.1, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Nebraska offense ranks 41st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.17); the Illinois defense ranks 131st (+0.29 allowed). Biggest Nebraska edges: passing-downs success rate, EPA per rush, rushing explosiveness. The Illinois defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness.
The Illinois offense ranks 31st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.19); the Nebraska defense ranks 7th (−0.06 allowed). Biggest Illinois edges: power success rate. The Nebraska defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, passing explosiveness, EPA per pass.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Nebraska +3.7 (51st toughest), Illinois +5.3 (39th toughest).
Weather: Clear, 41°F at kickoff (feels like 33°), 0% chance of rain, wind NW 11 mph gusting to 21.