Michigan State at Michigan: Week 10 preview

Michigan State (2-6) visits Michigan (5-3) on Sat, Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET. The line is Michigan −13.5 with a total of 39.5.
SP+ power ratings: Michigan State -3.0 (88th), Michigan 11.5 (27th). SP+ projects Michigan by 17.0, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Michigan State offense ranks 126th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.03); the Michigan defense ranks 4th (−0.08 allowed). The Michigan defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry, EPA per play, EPA per rush.
The Michigan offense ranks 83rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.08); the Michigan State defense ranks 100th (+0.17 allowed). Biggest Michigan edges: passing-downs success rate, success rate. The Michigan State defense holds the edge in explosiveness, rushing explosiveness, second-level yards per carry.
Schedule so far (average FBS opponent SP+): Michigan State +8.9 (15th toughest), Michigan +3.5 (53rd toughest).
Weather: Cloudy, 45°F at kickoff (feels like 38°), 0% chance of rain, wind NW 9 mph gusting to 15.